The aim of the course is to present main statistical methods for the analysis of economic data. The first part introduces the demand and supply of official and unofficial statistics. The second part addresses univariate time series methods, in particular: comparisons in time and space; decomposition and modelling of trends and seasonality as deterministic or stochastic components.

Upon successful completion of this course, students will be able:

- to know the main institutional data sources and understand their informative content

- to compare data in time and space

- to decompose univariate time series, isolating trend and sesonality

- to model univariate time series for prediction

- to critically assess the resulting models through diagnostic tests

Moreover, students will also be able to clearly and effectively communicate the main ideas and results, and to autonomously address simple extensions of the course contents.

Statistics 101. Basic literacy in informatics, in particular R (will be reviewed).

Part I. Sources of statistical data:
- Aim and scope of economic statistics
- The evolution of data standards and governance
- National accounts and structural statistics

Part II. Time series analysis:
- Index numbers; price indices; nominal and real values
- Time series decomposition and component estimation
- Moving averages
- Exponential smoothing
- Stochastic processes and linear models
- The Box-Jenkins procedure
- Forecasting with ARIMA models
- Trend-stationary processes and stochastic trends

Part I: Giovannini E. (2006) Le statistiche economiche, Il Mulino.

Part II: Di Fonzo T., Lisi F. (2012) Serie storiche economiche, Carocci.

Part I: Giovannini, chpts. I-IV.

Part II: Di Fonzo and Lisi, chpts. I-VIII.

Lectures and practicals using the R software. Teamwork assignments.

Additional materials (slides, papers) will be available on Moodle2.

Oral examination comprising theoretical and practical questions distributed appropriately across the subjects of the syllabus. A few extra points may be awarded for teamwork assignments.

The duration of the exam generally ranges from half an hour to an hour and a half, depending on the need to ascertain the level of knowledge achieved.

The exam is passed with a minimum score of 18/30 if a sufficient knowledge of the required topics is demonstrated along with an acceptable expository ability.

This course explores topics closely related to one or more goals of the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development (SDGs 3, 8, 9, 10)